Project Risk Index™ · Risk Assessment
Quantify risk.
Not guess at it.
For GCs · Owners · Developers · Sureties
The Project Risk Index™ is a metric-driven risk assessment for construction projects. 16 categories, 291 scored inputs, weighted composite scoring, lifecycle decay modeling, and dollar-denominated contingency exposure — delivered as an interactive report your team can act on.
Pre-Bid Assessment — go/no-go risk profile
FROM $2,500
Preconstruction Assessment — GMP validation
FROM $7,500
Lifecycle Tracking — quarterly reassessment
FROM $15,000
Enterprise — multi-project, annual retainer
CUSTOM
Project Risk Index™
Sample assessment
Schedule Risk
72
Procurement
64
Drawing Completeness
58
Contract Terms
47
Labor Risk
41
Safety Risk
33
Geotechnical
22
Environmental
14
$1.2B+
Project value assessed
47
Assessments delivered
$38M
Modeled exposure surfaced
18–24%
Avg. contingency variance vs. estimate
16
Risk Categories
Weighted and scored independently across all project dimensions
291
Binary Inputs
Yes / No / Unknown / N/A — no subjective 1–5 scales
5
Decay Models
Time-decay curves borrowed from options pricing theory
$
Dollar Exposure
Scores convert to contingency-dollar estimates per category
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What is the Project Risk Index™
Risk as a number,
not a conversation.
Traditional risk assessments produce qualitative matrices — red/yellow/green boxes that mean different things to different people. The Project Risk Index™ replaces that with a scored, weighted, repeatable methodology that produces a single composite number backed by 291 individual data points.
The assessment combines AI-powered document analysis with human expert judgment. Every input is tagged with its source — Claude analysis, human review, or hybrid — so you know exactly where each score came from and how confident the assessment is.
The result is an interactive HTML report with lifecycle tracking, decay-adjusted scoring, concentration analysis, and dollar-denominated exposure estimates. One number your team can track from pursuit through closeout.
Quantifiable
Every category scored 0–100 from structured binary inputs. No subjective 1–5 scales, no "high/medium/low" judgment calls.
Repeatable
Same methodology, same questions, same weights across every assessment. Results are comparable across projects and over time.
Lifecycle
Risk scores decay over time using five mathematical models. A score of 60 at pre-bid means something different than 60 at 80% complete.
Dollar-Based
Scores convert to modeled contingency-dollar exposure. "$2.1M in modeled risk" is more actionable than "high risk."
Dual-Source
AI document analysis handles contracts, specs, and regulatory docs. Human experts handle drawings, field conditions, and market intelligence.
Transparent
Every input tagged with its source. Every score traceable to specific questions. Full methodology disclosed in every report.
Dimension
Traditional risk matrix
Project Risk Index™
Scoring
Subjective High / Medium / Low, calibrated to whoever holds the pen.
291 binary inputs producing mathematically derived scores 0–100.
Repeatability
Two reviewers of the same project rarely produce comparable matrices.
Same questions, same weights, same math. Results comparable across reviewers.
Portfolio comparability
Every project uses its own matrix. Cross-project comparison is guesswork.
One methodology. Composite scores are directly comparable across your portfolio.
Time dimension
Static snapshot. Same red box at pre-bid and 80% complete.
Five decay curves model how each risk resolves as the project progresses.
Dollar exposure
Colors don't convert to contingency dollars.
Each category converts to modeled contingency-dollar exposure.
Source transparency
Judgment call by reviewer. Auditability depends on notes.
Every input tagged Claude / Human / Hybrid with cited reasoning.
§02
16 risk categories
Design & Documentation
3 categories · front-loaded resolution
01
Drawing Completeness
Design detail adequacy, coordination completeness, drawing set maturity across all trades.
02
Specification Completeness
Spec gap analysis, conflict identification, product substitution allowances, performance criteria.
16
Design Team Risk
Experience with project type, responsiveness, team cohesion, capacity, coordination history.
Commercial & Contract
3 categories · persistent through closeout
04
Contract Terms
Indemnification, liquidated damages, change order procedures, dispute resolution, insurance requirements.
15
Financial / Bonding
Funding stability, bonding capacity, cash flow exposure, contingency adequacy, surety relationships.
13
Owner / Client Risk
Payment history, decision speed, change order tendencies, litigation history, organizational stability.
Site & Environment
3 categories · cliff resolution at excavation
14
Geotechnical / Site
Subsurface conditions, water table, contamination, site access, existing utilities, bearing capacity.
10
Permitting Risk
Permit timeline, approval complexity, variance requirements, inspection scheduling, agency backlogs.
07
Environmental Risk
Contamination, endangered species, wetlands, stormwater, ESA findings, remediation requirements.
Delivery & Operations
4 categories · highest weighting, S-curve resolution
05
Safety Risk
Hazard exposure, safety program adequacy, incident history, high-risk operations, OSHA compliance.
03
Schedule Risk
Duration feasibility, float adequacy, milestone achievability, phasing complexity, weather exposure.
12
Labor Risk
Trade availability, prevailing wage, union/open shop, workforce quality, overtime exposure, productivity.
11
Procurement Risk
Long-lead items, sole-source dependencies, tariff exposure, material availability, supply chain health.
External & Market
3 categories · persistent, context-dependent
06
Regulatory Risk
Code complexity, jurisdictional requirements, inspection protocols, compliance burden, AHJ relationships.
08
Public / Community
Neighbor opposition, noise/traffic impact, community sentiment, public hearings, media exposure.
09
Political Risk
Funding stability, political support, election cycles, policy changes, public agency dynamics.
Ready to see where your project stands? A single assessment is the fastest way to know.
Request assessment →
§03
Scoring methodology
Scoring pipeline — from raw inputs to dollar exposure
01 · INPUTS
291
Binary questions
Yes = 0 · No = 1 · Unknown = 0.75 · N/A excluded
02 · CATEGORIES
16
Category scores
Normalized 0–100 per category · Low / Mod / High / Critical
03 · WEIGHT
0.5–1.6×
Weighted composite
Safety 1.6× · Schedule 1.5× · Political 0.5×
04 · DECAY
5
Time-decay models
Cliff · Front-loaded · S-curve · Linear · Persistent
05 · EXPOSURE
$
Dollar exposure
Score × cost-sensitivity factor ($0.5–7.0K per risk point)
Cliff
Procurement, Geotech, Environmental — stays high until a specific event resolves it, then drops sharply.
Front-loaded
Drawings, Specs, Permitting, Design Team — resolves quickly early as documents mature.
S-curve
Schedule, Safety — slow at first, accelerates through construction, tails off.
Linear
Labor, Public / Community — steady, proportional to time remaining.
Persistent
Contract, Owner, Financial, Regulatory, Political — never fully decays.
01
Binary Inputs
291 yes/no questions across 16 categories. "Yes" = risk mitigated (0 points). "No" = risk present (1 point). "Unknown" = 0.75 points — uncertainty is almost as dangerous as a confirmed negative. "N/A" is excluded from the denominator.
02
Weighted Composite
Each category carries a weight (0.5× to 1.6×) reflecting its importance to project outcomes. The composite score is the weighted average across all 16 categories, mapped to risk bands: Low (0–25), Moderate (26–50), High (51–75), Critical (76–100).
03
Time Decay
Borrowed from options pricing theory. Five decay curves — cliff, front-loaded, S-curve, linear, and persistent — model how each risk type resolves as the project progresses. A score of 60 at pre-bid is very different from 60 at 80% complete.
04
Concentration Risk
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index measures whether risk is concentrated in a few categories or broadly distributed. A project with risk spread across many areas is fundamentally different from one where two categories dominate — even at the same composite score.
05
Correlation Analysis
15 directional relationships between categories model how risks compound. Drawing incompleteness drives procurement risk, which drives schedule risk, which drives labor risk. When source categories score high, correlated targets are flagged.
06
Dollar Exposure
Each category has a cost-sensitivity factor ($0.5K to $7.0K per risk point). Scores convert to contingency-dollar estimates: "$2.5M in modeled exposure" is more actionable than "high risk." Modeled exposure is a planning input, not a reserve requirement.
§04
Assessment phases
Risk shifts with the project.
The composite score doesn't stay flat — it decays as project uncertainty resolves. Below: how a sample $42.8M distribution center's composite tracks across the lifecycle. The PRI can be delivered at any phase.
Sample lifecycle · Crossroads Commerce Distribution Center
Composite score decay · 71 → 22 across 16 months
01
Pre-Bid / Pursuit
Should you chase this project? Owner risk, market conditions, contract terms, scope definition, schedule feasibility. A quantitative go/no-go decision tool.
Go / no-go decision
02
Bid / Preconstruction
What are you pricing into? Drawing completeness, specification gaps, constructability, procurement lead times, labor planning. GMP validation and risk pricing.
GMP validation
03
Construction
Where are you exposed right now? Periodic reassessment of emerging risks, schedule performance, labor issues, change order velocity. Active risk management.
Active risk management
04
Closeout
What's going to drag? Punch list complexity, commissioning, warranty obligations, retainage release, lien waivers. Closeout risk management.
Closeout risk management
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Sample deliverable
The deliverable.
An interactive HTML report with lifecycle assessment tracking, dynamic rendering, clickable category detail, decay analysis charts, and a full action plan. Below: a sample four-assessment lifecycle report for a $42.8M distribution center project.
§ A
Composite score & exposure
Headline number, decay-adjusted score, dollar exposure, HHI concentration.
§ B
Top drivers & category bars
Ranked drivers with per-category exposure, confidence, and item count.
§ C
Findings & decay charts
Findings tagged Human / Claude, each with dollar contribution and decay curves.
§ D
Action plan
Ordered by timing — owner, due date, resolved items retained for audit.
Every report we deliver looks like the one above. Yours could be next.
Start an assessment →
§06
Pricing
Two pricing dimensions: the range below is per assessment, indexed to project value. Each assessment phase (Pre-Bid, Preconstruction, Construction, Closeout) can be commissioned independently — or bundled as full lifecycle tracking at a 15–20% discount to the sum of phases.
Under $5M
$2.5–5K
Single assessment for smaller commercial, tenant fit-out, or residential projects. Full 16-category scoring with interactive report.
Per assessment
$5M – $25M
$7.5–15K
Mid-market commercial, institutional, and industrial projects. Full assessment with document analysis and expert review.
Per assessment
$25M – $100M
$15–35K
Large commercial, healthcare, higher-ed, and mixed-use. Comprehensive assessment with lifecycle tracking recommended.
Per assessment
$100M+
$35K+
Major programs, campus-scale, and portfolio assessments. Custom scope with multi-tier delivery and enterprise retainer options.
Custom scope
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Frequently asked
Questions about risk assessment.
Traditional risk matrices use subjective high/medium/low ratings. The PRI uses 291 binary inputs that produce mathematically derived, repeatable scores — and every score converts to a dollar exposure, not just a color on a chart.
Whatever exists at your project's current phase: contract or draft, design documents, geotech and environmental reports if available. Claude analyzes contracts, specs, and technical reports; human experts assess drawings, labor, and field conditions. More documents = fewer “Unknown” responses.
~38% of the 291 questions are answered by Claude via structured document analysis with cited reasoning. Another 24% are hybrid (Claude drafts, human validates). The remaining 38% require expert judgment on drawings, market, and relationships.
5–10 business days for a first assessment; 3–5 days for lifecycle reassessments once the baseline is in place.
Borrowed from options pricing: not all risks decay at the same rate. Cliff (procurement, geotech), front-loaded (drawings), and persistent (contract, owner) risks all follow different curves. The model adjusts scores based on how much runway remains for each risk to materialize.
It's designed to complement, not replace. The PRI is the quantitative baseline; your qualitative discussions, relationships, and institutional knowledge layer on top.
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Request a risk assessment24-hour response
Let's assess your risk.
Tell us about your project and we'll scope a risk assessment — single pre-bid review, preconstruction deep-dive, or full lifecycle tracking.
01
Email
02
Response
Within 1 business day
03
Deliverable
Interactive HTML report · PDF companion